Are IMF loans for Belarus the main reason

The IMF is ready to intervene in the oil dispute of Moscow and Minsk. Experts think that the IMF have decided to join the game.

The IMF permanent representative in Belarus Natalia Kolyadina has stated that the foundation is set to rry out talks on conditions of oil import from Russia, Vzglyad newspaper writes.

“We haven’t completely calculated the influence of changed terms of oil import in Belarus at balance of payments. It would be done during the future mission,” Kolyadina said.

Besides, as said by the permanent representative, measures needed for minimization of the negative influence on balance of payments and further implementation of stand-by program are to be discussed.

We remind that Russia and Belarus entered the new 2010 year without an agreement on oil deliveries and transit. Oil transit via Belarus to Europe continues, as well as deliveries to Belarusian refineries. The issue of deliveries of Russian oil to Belarus is still up in the air.

Interstate dispute

Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute of Political Expertise, wonders: “I sincerely do not understand what the OMF has to do with that, as it is a dispute between the states?”

Russia’s stand in this contest is dispute is more than clear: there are internal wants of Belarus, about 8 million tons of oil, and part of them Belarus provides itself, and the rest, 6.3 million tons, Russia is ready to deliver on duty-free basis. The rest which is delivered abroad is naturally offered to be delieved with duties.

“Otherwise it happens that we discriminate against our own manufacturers; our Belarusian colleges get an opportunity to compete I the same markets where we enter. The issue in question is dozens millions tons of oil. It turns out that the budget and Russian enterprises have losses,” the analyst noted, adding that the last three years the favourable regime of taxation has resulted in $10 billion loss for Russia.

Another part of the dispute is pumping tariff. “Belarusians say that their tariffs are lower than in Russia. It is really so, but one should understand that investment component is added to the cost of oil pumping through Russia,” Minchenko said.

These are pipelines which Russia has to construct additionally (For instance, “South Stream”). And in Belarus everything has been constructed already. “Statements of this wonderful organisation seem rather strange for me,” the analyst cincluded.

Are loans the reason?

An expert with the Russian Political Situation Center, Dmitry Abazalov linked energizing of the IMF in the oil dispute of Moscow and Minsk with offering the last credit line. We remind that Belarus is implementing payment balance stabilization program with IMF, which is supported by a stand-by credit of 3.63 billion dollars from January 2009 to April 2010. The IMF has granted Belarus almost 2.9 billion dollars.

“Expecting the loan, Belarus once offered European partners to privatize part of active assets. It is clear that this privatization is not profitable for them, but Belarus can try to play with the IMF,” the expert believes. And the IMF may try to play on contradictions of Moscow and Minsk.

It is a different story that the IMF will act strictly within the framework of the set borders: the European leadership does not need destabilization of the situation.

At the same time, Abzalov believes that despite of all agreements, all these statements are to remain at the level of promises. “It seems to me that the IMF is simply trying to gain a footing in the region,” he said.

Source:charter97.org/